Just some random observations and theories on the recall…. (I’ll make sure to note when I’m being tongue in cheek)

It strikes me as interesting that so far only two candidates have really been ‘straight shooters.’ In the debates and every article I’ve read, Peter Camejo and Tom McClintock have answered every question, stated their positions with no apologies, no hedging and no worries at all about alienating voters. They are true believers and don’t seem concerned at all with anyone in the middle. McClintock from the right and Camejo from the left, and everyone else is hedging. I respect them both greatly even if I disagree with them on many issues. McClintock touching the abortion issue, even if only to challenge partial-birth procedures and Camejo actually stating that we must have gay marriage. (Yay.) I also commend him for taking a stand against the three-strikes law even though nearly 80% of the voters support it. (I disagree with him 100%, but it takes courage to stand up for what you believe in.)

Mostly whacky conspiracy theory #1 Bush & Davis (Tongue in cheek- mostly)

So Davis signs the illegal alien drivers license bill with no provisions to prevent voter fraud last week and I started thinking; there is no way this can stand. It’s a violation of Federal voting laws, Immigration laws, a threat to homeland security etc. Then it hit me. George W. Bush and Gray Davis came up with this plan together. In exchange for staying out of the recall mess and for not slamming the door shut on Davis’ Hail-Mary attempts to nickel and dime his way to victory, Bush gets this bill passed. Why does he want it? Well it’s simple. Everyone knows that it will lead to voter fraud on a massive scale. So fast forward to November 2004. Bush and Howard Dean are in a tight national race and as expected Dean wins California by a huge margin. The California electoral votes push Dean over the top and he wins the election. But wait! The massive voter fraud in California is uncovered and the Supreme Court quickly moves to throw out the entire state’s returns, giving Bush the win. In return, Gray Davis is appointed as the new Attorney General where he can over-see Federal executions and investigate voter fraud.

The Indian Gaming money is beginning to concern me. Somehow Bustamonte gets around campaign finance laws by moving around illegal contributions from account to account? Let’s get this straight. The tribes give him 2 million bucks (Something like 70 times the limit) to his 2002 Lt. Gov campaign? (This is 2003, that election has been won.) He gets sued when he moves that money into his current campaign fund so he then moves it into an issues-fund so he can appear in Prop 54 commercials purchased with the money. This sounds like someone dropped the ball on Cruz’s team. Why not just have the money go right into the Prop 54 account in the first place? If the lawsuit is successful, won’t they just take the money back and then give it to Prop 54? Adding to this mess is the fact that the same tribes have given McClintock money recently. They have to know that if Tom stays in the race, Cruz stands a much better chance of winning. I’m all for Indian gaming (and legalized gambling throughout the sate) but we’ve seen this strategy before when Davis spent 8 million dollars buying the Republican primary for Simon. (Anyone who doesn’t think that’s a dangerous precedent should imagine Bush buying ads in swing states to assure that someone less likely to beat him wins.)

Mostly Whacky Conspiracy Theory #2 Davis & Dean/Edwards/Kerry/Gore

Realizing that his string of last minute Socialist bills are going to alienate even more voters in California, Davis knows that his popularity will plummet. A complete financial crash of the California economy will cripple the ongoing national recover and make Bush more vulnerable in 2004. This helps the Democratic candidate, whoever he or she may be. With the people of California ready to now lynch the Governor, he is taken by helicopter from the State Capitol as thousands of angry voters cling to the landing gear. The newly elected Howard Dean appoints Davis as Secretary of State and immediately ships him out of the country for his own safety. Alternate Plan: The demise of the California economy does the impossible and allows Bush to win the state in 2004. At this point, the massive voter fraud is once again brought up; forcing he USSC to throw out the California election and Dean is awarded the victory. In this case, Davis leaves California to become Secretary of the Treasury so he can spot weld the faucet open for Dean’s new spending programs.

I can’t be the only person who is disappointed that Larry Flynt’s campaign
seems to be no more serious those of Mary Carey, Gary Coleman or Gallagher. I don’t like a lot of the things Larry does, but he has a number of great ideas. Why he’s running as a Democrat is beyond me. He’s a Libertarian through and through. There is no way his ideas would fit into the Democratic platform (Or the Republican platform of course.) Since those few opening interviews, he has vanished. It can’t be about the money. I doubt there is anyone running in this race with the kind of money he’s got. Obviously he would end up getting ripped apart if he really ran, but some of us still had hope. Ha, and if anyone thinks that Arnold has a problem with the “woman issue” can you imagine Flynt? The only candidate the Christian Right and NOW can agree to hate.

Not-So Whacky Conspiracy Theory #3 McClintock the martyr.

This one is a little less tongue-in-cheek: I think McClintock wants Bustamonte to win. He knows that he’s only polling at around 12% which covers most of the hard-core conservatives. He knows that Camejo isn’t taking that same percentage away from Cruz. (Hard liners on both sides usually equal 15-20% on both sides.) If he pulls out, Arnold pulls way ahead and barring a total collapse, he wins. That instantly deflates Tom to a lower level. He can battle with Arnold, but he’s not going to be able to have the same vigor. If Cruz wins, then he gets to scream and shout like he has been for two years and people will see him as something more than just a feisty conservative. It’s like watching Bob Dole go from minority leader to majority leader. All of a sudden, it’s just not as powerful. Besides, if Arnold wins and moderates really take back the Republican Party in California, then McClintock is going to become Pat Buchanan and fade into the sunset. It’s much harder for him to bash a moderate, especially one in his own party. He will be much happier fighting Cruz for 3 years and setting himself up to run against him. With Arnold in, he won’t have much of a chance. Ahhhh, unless Arnold pulls a Venture and then chooses the guy he wants to run after him in 2006, which opens us up to the one way Tom might bow out. If the party promises him first shot at the job in 2006. (Very common tactic, used on Gore in 88 and currently being used on McCain.)

Why in the world is Ari Huffington still getting so much press? She isn’t polling any better than the whack-a-do candidates and she’s clearly off her rocker. Going after corporate abusers while cheating on her own taxes? (You know her husband had to get a thrill from telling people how much he’s paying her in support.) I think that all points of view should be heard, I just can’t seem to get a grasp on what she stands for? Soak the rich? Look in the mirror Ari. You get more in spousal/child support than 93% of California family EARN in a year.

Political Strategy 101: I almost feel sorry for Davis at this point because he being used and passed around like the only Wet-Nap at an all-you-can-eat BBQ Rib and corn on the cob picnic. The Illegal Alien Driver’s License bill is one example. Davis vetoed tougher bills in the past and did a 180 for one simple reason. Gil Cedillo and others held him up. Currently, Cedillo holds a lot of the cards to Davis’ hopes in the recall. If he and Latino supporters abandon the No Recall/Yes Cruz mantra and just start pushing Cruz for Governor, then Davis is cooked. He needs 100% support or he’s going to fail. Cedillo knows that the Governor isn’t in favor of this law because it’s a bad law. It’s going to be killed in the courts because it doesn’t make any sense. (Airlines have already suggested that a CDL may no longer be good enough ID to travel. Get your passports everyone.) They bent Davis over a barrel and he has little choice but to take it. It’s going to happen on a number of other bills as well. The Davis legacy is going to be that of a desperate man who got used on the way out.

This is a totally safe move for Cedillo and company because they win either way. They offer to keep up the No on Recall mantra in exchange for the DLs. If Davis beats the recall, they get their law and he owes them a few more. If he loses and CBust wins, they get their law plus they get the man they really want. (And let’s face it; Cruz stands a better chance of winning this election that he would in 2006.) If Davis and Cruz lose, then they get their law. When the courts over-turn the law, they can paint the new Governor, whoever he or she is, as anti-immigrant. I wonder what other groups will step up to trade with Davis at the last minute.